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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

However this year's race is distinctly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers improving collectively. In an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still